But Milanesi cautioned against both complacency and writing an iPhone eulogy for 2015. "The numbers still look good [for the iPhone]. There are a lot of people who still have the older models," Milanesi said, giving a nod to survey data that Kantar will release next week.
"For me, what I'm eager to see is how many will pick up the lower-priced 6 Plus," Milanesi continued, referring to Apple's practice of retaining last year's model or models at discounted prices. "That's the long tail of what you'll see as people with a 4S or 5 upgrade."
And it's a bad idea to bet against Apple's promotional machine in an off-year when expectations may be lower, or even very low because of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus sales. "That's the time where Apple has an advantage, when we're not expecting another rabbit out of the hat," Milanesi said.
At the least, Apple will also take time to talk up iOS 9 and announce its imminent availability -- likely on Sept. 16 -- and highlight Apple Watch, perhaps with third-party developers strutting native apps crafted with the new SDK (software development kit) for watchOS 2. There is also a chance that Apple will identify the release date for OS X El Capitan, the Mac upgrade that has been on an accelerated schedule.
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