Partial autonomy features — like self-driving on the highway — will be slow to roll out over the next 10 years, before growing to a $22.7 billion market by 2030.
Expect that sticker price to change too
"ADAS technologies open the automotive market opportunity to new players from the software and hardware worlds, with each aiming to create as much value as possible by consolidating capabilities and offering platforms that enable 'plug-and-play' autonomy," Saenko said.
Automation will also add to the base price of vehicles. Enhanced driver-assist features will add $527 to the price of new cars in 2020. Gradually, though, economies of scale will come into play and by 2030 the enhanced features will add $481 per car. The bulk of the additional cost arises from software — $367 in 2020, and $220 per car in 2030 — while connectivity will account for $160 per car in 2020 and $261 in 2030, according to Lux Research.
According to the Lux Research report, internal and external vehicle sensors will account for 23% of the $102 billion ADAS market, while the connectivity and apps segment takes a higher 28% share; software to coordinate sensor interoperability and enable critical safety operations will claim a 25% share.
Enhanced driver assist has the best opportunity to succeed. Cars with basic driver-assist features, like parking assist, will cash in early, with a potential $29.6 billion market by 2022. However, enhanced driver-assist features — such as adaptive cruise control and lane merge — offer the largest opportunity to automakers and tier-one manufacturers and will be worth $73 billion in 2030.
LIDAR, which stands for Light Detection And Ranging, is a geospatial recognition function that's already being piloted in vehicles from BMW, Mercedes and even Google. LIDAR uses a spinning laser to paint a high-resolution 3D image of the area immediate around the car to aid the vehicle's internal computer in automated driving.
While most automakers have LIDAR on their list of hopeful features, it's currently too expensive for mass market use, with a price tag of around $75,000. Automakers are hoping mass production will eventually drive prices down.
"LIDAR is sufficiently important enough that the prospects of the costs coming down seem viable at this point," Saenko said.
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