Global semiconductor capital spending is expected to increase by 10.2 percent in 2017, to reach US$77.8 billion, according to Gartner.
This growth rate is up from the previous quarter's forecast of 1.4 percent, and is driven by the "strong manufacturing demand in memory and leading-edge logic," said said Takashi Ogawa, research vice president at Gartner.
"The NAND flash shortage was more pronounced in the first quarter of 2017 than the previous forecast, leading to over 20 percent growth of etch and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) segments in 2017 with a strong capacity ramp-up for 3D NAND," he added.
Gartner predicts that next cyclical down cycle for capital spending will emerge in 2018 to 2019, compared with 2019 to 2020 in the previous quarter's forecast.
Gartner worldwide semiconductor capital spending chart. Credit: Gartner
"Spending on wafer fab equipment will follow a similar cycle with a peak in 2018. While the most likely scenario will still keep positive growth in 2018, there is a concern that the growth will turn negative if the end-user demand in key electronics applications is weaker than expected," commented Ogawa.
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