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The Macalope: A massive misunderstanding

The Macalope | April 10, 2013
Who's ready to get craaaaaaaaazy?!

That Reisinger doesn't get that is astounding. And, at the same time, completely unsurprising coming from him. It's a paradox.

If this sounds familiar, it's because a similar scenario played out in the smartphone market. When Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, its iOS platfom was on top of the world.

That's some cutesy phrasing on Reisinger's part, possibly because he knows that, as Horace Dediu has pointed out, Apple only ever led the smartphone market for two separate quarters, both in 2011. Or possibly he doesn't know that at all and just likes using imprecise terminology.

Actually, if the Macalope had to guess, he'd go with the latter.

In fact, last year, Google generated $2.2 billion of the $4.1 billion spent on mobile ads in the U.S.

Yeah, and, hey, which platform did that money come from? Because last time the Macalope heard (which was a couple of years ago), Google made most of its mobile revenue from iOS, not Android.

By 2015, that figure is expected to soar to $9.3 billion.

OMG THAT'S A BIG NUMBER! Well, it is until you realize that it's a billion less than Apple made selling iPads alone last quarter.

So, maybe we're all looking at things in the wrong way.

Well, you are. That we've already determined.

Yes, Apple is successful and yes, Apple will continue to make billions of dollars.

Billions of dollars more than Google. How do you not see this?

But the company's market share will fall behind that of Android, giving Google at least a leadership position in the tablet space.

No! Wrong! Again, "Android" might have a larger market share, but Google will not.

It's worth pointing out that IDC (which, along with Macworld, is owned by IDG) is also the firm that last year predicted 2012 would be the high-water mark for both Android and iOS in smartphones because WHOOO WINDOWS PHONE, YEAH! How's that working out? Oh, turns out they've already revised Windows Phone's 2016 estimated share from 19 percent down to 11 percent. Oops.

Still, the Macalope is sure their market-share projections in tablets are solid gold on which you can base a massive misunderstanding of market dynamics without concern.

 

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