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The Macalope: A massive misunderstanding

The Macalope | April 10, 2013
Who's ready to get craaaaaaaaazy?!

Who's ready to get craaaaaaaaazy?!

Well, sit down, because Don Reisinger has used up all the crazy in this post telling us "Why Google has already won the tablet race" (tip o' the antlers to Harry Marks).

No, no! You read that right!

It's official, game over: Google has won the tablet market. Apple, Microsoft, and every other company thinking seriously about breaking into the space, move on. It's game over.

"Breaking into the space?" You mean the space that Apple created three years ago and still owns? That space?

In order to not "break into" that space, Apple would have to invent a time machine and go back to 2010 to prevent itself from making the iPad. The Macalope's not sure why it would do that, but that's what it would have to do.

Some might read that and call me crazy.

Let's just take the indefinite pronoun out of that sentence.

You're crazy.

Sure, Apple is currently winning the tablet market when it comes to unit sales and market share, and those battles are important to win. But it's Google -- not Apple -- that's actually winning the war.

So, not only can Apple not win when it's taking all the profit but not the market share, it can't win when it's taking both, but is not also taking someone's imagination of what future market share will be. Boy, this game is hard when the rules are so malleable!

Let's start first with the expectation of Android's success in the coming years. In 2010, Android owned a little over 20% of the tablet market, according to IDC. In 2011, that figure jumped to 32.3%. By the end of this year, IDC believes that Android will own 48.8% of the tablet market.

And it's not like market-share projections have ever been wrong before! It's in the bag! Just give up already, Apple!

By the end of 2017, Android will hold strong with 46% market share, according to IDC, but iOS will drop to 43.5 percent.

If you believe IDC's numbers, Apple will still own almost half of the market four years from now. Total fail. And allow the Macalope to suggest that there might be a slight margin of error in numbers that have been constructed from faeries, unicorns, and unadulterated elf crack.

Also, what about that 46 percent that's "Android?" Yes, some of it will be straight Google Android, but much of it will be Amazon and Chinese forks of Android, which don't directly benefit Google. And if Samsung chooses to fork Android, as everyone expects, Google's share of that 46 percent will be probably be the smallest share overall.

 

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