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iPhone 6 rumor rollup for the week ending Aug. 22

John Cox | Aug. 25, 2014
iPhone 6 rumors swarmed as iOSpherians count down the days and hours until the expected, but not confirmed, Sept. 9 announcement. Panic ensues.

iPhone 6 will sell gazillions of units in just the first quarter

In that same Patently Apple post, Jack Purcher writes "The amount of pending IC inventories is based on the latest market speculation indicating that sales of the next-generation iPhone are expected to surpass 100 million units in 2014, higher than the previous projection of 80 million units, said the sources."

Richard Padilla, MacRumors, who takes an unsubstantiated claim that Apple will barely product 2 million sapphire covers for the Really Big iPhone 6 in 2014 and assumes, without knowing anything about Apple's actual product plans or schedule, that there must be either delays or limited quantities.

The 100 million figure somehow passed Purcher's "laugh test" for rumors. If released in mid-September, the bulk of iPhone 6 ("next-generation iPhone") sales will fall in the Oct-Dec quarter. The highest iPhone unit sales ever were in Oct-Dec 2013, following the release of iPhone 5c and 5s: 51 million phones, including older models, according to Statista. By contrast, Citigroup recently estimated iPhone 6 sales, for all of Apple's fiscal 2015, at 140 million, which means Apple would sell fewer iPhones than it likely will sell in fiscal 2014 (the three-quarter FY 2014 total is already at 130 million, though again that includes all models, which makes accurate comparisons difficult).

The earlier, and lower, prediction is from a market research firm that forecasts a Oct-Dec iPhone 6 total of 80 million, based on reports or rumors or claims that Apple is demanding from assemblers Pegatron and Foxconn 70-80 million iPhone 6 units (covering both 4.7- and 5.5-inch models) for that period.

Based on the historical trends in the Statista chart, first full-quarter sales of new iPhones (starting with the Q4 2010 iPhone 4) increased over the previous quarter by: 68 percent, 117 percent (the 4s, shifting release dates from early summer to early fall), 78 percent (iPhone 5), and 51 percent (5s, 5c). Eliminating the 117 percent as an outlier, the average increase is 66 percent.

A 66 percent increase over the 51 million units sold Oct-Dec 2013 would come to just under 85 million for the Oct-Dec 2014 quarter. But the Next iPhone enters a global market with lots of competitors and where lots of buyers already have a smartphone, including an iPhone.

iPhone 6 will have $100 sapphire screen but not until 2015 or something

The closer we get to Sept. 9, the more confused are the rumors about Apple's 2014 plan for sapphire.

The latest confusion contributions stem from another haiku-like post at Digitimes, citing Digitimes Research, to the effect that "Apple partner and sapphire glass manufacturer GT Advanced is estimated to produce anywhere from 1.35 to 2.25 million sapphire covers for the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 by the end of 2014."

 

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