Egan said it isn't clear how BlackBerry is going to levy service fees, since the Z10 and Q10 can function without the need for BES 10. Also, many enterprises are moving to Exchange ActiveSync, which can be used in place of BES 10, Egan said.
Without BES 10 support from either an IT shop or a carrier, a new Z10 or Q10 won't have important new features such as BlackBerry Balance, a means of separating work and personal data on the device.
"They have been talking at BlackBerry about how they are working on changes to how service revenues are computed and how they are presented to enterprises and carriers and individuals, but that's a big uncertainty," Egan said. "Are hardware sales going to be enough to offset losses on the services side? They haven't disclosed how they will make that up."
Gold tended to agree with Egan. "Service fees is an issue for BlackBerry going forward," he said. "Their percentage of income from services has been falling. This is a result of both BlackBerry devices being abandoned by users, as well as some companies removing the BES installations. The new devices don't have to use BES, but won't have all the features implemented without it. And it remains to be seen if the carriers continue to offer BES and the related services, which remains a good revenue producer for BlackBerry."
Egan said the fact that BlackBerry hasn't been transparent with how it is charging for services could be due to ongoing negotiations with various carriers.
Big quarter underway
BlackBerry's first fiscal quarter is nearly half over and might be the most critical quarter it has faced since Heins joined the company in early 2012.
"The current quarter is extremely important, absolutely critical for a number of reasons," Egan said. He explained that BlackBerry and Heins already have done "nearly everything they can do internally to shrink themselves to greatness."
Recent steps have included layoffs and renegotiations of terms to suppliers and a slowdown in bad device returns, Egan said. "Operationally, they have made themselves pretty efficient internally."
But now the pressure is on BlackBerry to show progress in executing externally -- mainly through sales. "They have to produce and sell great devices, capture service revenue growth and increase their portfolio to try to compete against Samsung, which has its aim on business customers. Meanwhile, Microsoft with Nokia and Apple have continued to execute well," Egan said.
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