As the increased adoption of cloud services by larger businesses delivers an incentive to provide more reasonable SLAs — and, more importantly, the resilience, systems, and processes required to ensure SLA violations are unlikely to be triggered — experienced providers, both large and small, will offer more robust and reasonable SLAs and others will be forced to follow. Though I anticipate positive progress, there's one caveat: just because a provider commits to an SLA does not mean they are capable of delivering to it.
4. Apps get the wrecking ball
OK, not so much the wrecking ball. More like a precise renovation driven both by cloud and mobile computing. Today's mobile applications have proven the value that atomization (delivering small, limited — or even single — function applications) delivers to both the app consumer and the app provider. Certainly cloud services will need to support applications of this nature, though there is another trend I expect to see emerge in 2013. More businesses will begin to realize that pulling functionality out of their existing, large applications and into atomized services will enable them to respond to requests for changes more quickly.
Changes to these smaller services will require less testing (compared to the mammoth apps), will present much less risk, and will be much less costly to maintain and test. Extracting services in this way also creates an opportunity for some of those services to be provided via cloud computing. In addition more applications will be architected specifically for cloud computing. These cloud architected applications will exploit the increased resilience, agility, and performance cloud computing can offer. A few companies, Netflix for one, have already demonstrated many of those benefits.
5. A high-impact cyber attack is launched from a cloud
Those who specialize in IT security appear to broadly agree that a catastrophic, or highly visible or impactful, cyber attack is bound to happen. And just as cloud computing offers benefits such as performance, scalability, and resilience to legitimate businesses and citizens; it also offers those benefits to people with more sinister objectives. And, public cloud services may offer them the added benefit of anonymity, or at least the perception thereof. It affords those malevolent people with a platform from which they could launch a low-cost, high impact attack.
While many providers are diligently looking for inbound attacks, they may not be equipped to sense something outbound. If they sense it, they may not be able to stop it (or stop it quickly enough), and they may even be prevented or delayed by the regulations and laws to which they are subject. Such an event could lead to even more tension between governments in the context of data location and other such regulations.
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