The observant among you will remember that, last year, I posted an article about the things you didn't need to worry about this year. Well, I'm doing it again. This is what is known as a "tradition," so here's the second installment. Read and weep over what won't be worth considering next year.
1. IBM's cloud play
In 2014, IBM will still be pulling the wool over our eyes. Last year, I predicted you wouldn't have to worry about IBM's cloud play and noted that the company seemed to be moving numbers around to exaggerate its cloud revenue. The SEC agreed with me and in July launched a probe to see what was up. Since then, IBM has made some seemingly important announcements, but they are "strategic" or technology focused -- meaning they are not customer-focused, and until they are, it's mostly sales and marketing. Expect quarterly reports stating a more "rigorous and disciplined process" where IBM won't break out actual numbers and will lump unlike things together. There will be more acquisitions, but not much of a business probably for at least another year or two.
2. Your developer job
Recent reports state there are 10 jobs per every eight developers. This has made some meetups and user group meetings a burden to attend -- they tend to be overrun by recruiters, many of whom have hair of the TV news anchor variety. While jobs are no problem for developers as a national average, however, that doesn't mean your dream job can be found just anywhere. For that, you might have to acquire just the right, precious combination of skills and experience to please a hipster hiring manager.
3. MongoDB fading away
10gen became MongoDB, Inc., closed enough money to keep everyone fat and happy, and kicked its sales and marketing up a notch. Look for MongoDB to mature in 2014 and become an even bigger force to be reckoned with.
4. Hadoop being only a fad
The mere services sector of the Hadoop market is expected to be in the tens of billions of dollars in less than three years. My consulting company is betting big here, and you should too. The volume of data, the concurrency required, and the business culture of never throwing things away are working together to create a perfect storm.
After going private, Dell will be around for a good, long while. But I don't foresee a strong resurgence in the PC market. I mean, everyone is just dying to buy a new PC preloaded with Windows 8.1 right? Oh, wait. Meanwhile, Dell is mailing paper catalogs to everyone in our company because paper catalogs are exactly how a technology company like ours shops for computers. Sure, Dell has other lines of business, but nothing that will replace the revenue the company will continue to lose. It will be hard to imagine Dell making the kind of radical change it needs quickly enough. I predict Lenovo will be a big winner this year partly due to the Chinese and Asian market, but in the United States as well. Neil Young and Kurt Cobain (who will be 20 years dead in April) said it best: "It's better to burn out than fade away."
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