In the final analysis, "About half of the progress in the performance of AI has been from improved computing power, and half has been from improvements by programmers. Sometimes, progress is from brute force applied to get a one percent improvement. But the ingenuity of people like Hinton should not be downplayed," says MIRI's Muehlhauser.
The AI rush
If the spectacle of large corporations investing major sums in a technology is evidence that the technology has gone mainstream, future historians may say that AI reached that point in the winter of 2013-2014.
In January, Rob High, vice president and chief technology officer of the Watson Group, announced IBM's plans to invest $1 billion in AI over the next few years. This includes $100 million as venture capital seed money to invest in Watson-based startups.
IBM has made no secret of its embrace of AI, especially after its Watson natural-language AI system (with access to four terabytes of information) famously won the TV quiz show Jeopardy! against two human champions in 2011.
Michael Rhodin, the new head of IBM's Watson Group, announcing in January that IBM will invest more than $1 billion to establish a new business unit around its Watson cognitive supercomputer. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
High explains that Watson involves "a major shift from classical AI, which relied heavily on ontology for evaluating questions or answers. Instead we are aggregating multiple technologies and multiple strategies to disambiguate results and enhance fidelity. My wife calls me to say that she will stop at the store on the way home. That is ambiguous, but I have enough history to know what she is talking about."
The result of these aggregated technologies is that Watson can read natural-language material and derive information from it with success approaching that of a human being, he explains.
IBM is exploring the use of Watson in a number of industries, especially medicine, where it could digest all available clinical literature associated with a case. "Doctors see a demo and walk away giddy about how it affects their ability to make decisions," High says.
As a product, Watson will be based in the cloud, but developers can embed access in their applications, he adds.
In January Google reportedly paid $400 million or more (reports vary) for DeepMind Technologies, a London-based machine learning firm.
Google spokespersons declined to discuss Google's AI-related actions and plans. Facebook's LeCun, however, is familiar with DeepMind. "They had hired some of my students," he recalls. "They had a presentation where they connected their system to an old video game like Space Invaders and had it try to maximize points by trial and error, learning the game from scratch. After a week it was better than a human," he says.
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